Portions of our website may not display or function properly when used with your current browser. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see inflation averaging 4.0% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 4.4% in 2022. SARB seeks much better CPI forecast to cut rates. The South Africa IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) inched down to 50.3 in November from October’s 51.0, which had marked the best reading in over two-and-a-half years. Consumer Price Index CPI in South Africa averaged 31.45 points from 1960 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 116.80 points in September of 2020 and a record low of 1.20 points in February of 1960. Search and explore the world’s largest statistical database to find data. Meanwhile, the trend was unchanged with annual average inflation coming in at September's 3.4% in October. Consumer inflation, or CPI, slowed to 3% in September from 3.1% in August, the very bottom of the SARB’s 3%-6% target range — and the inflation outlook is generally subdued. The change in the consumer price index between August 2020 and September 2020 was 0,2%, identical to the reading in the previous month. We believe that the RCA clawback alone may raise the SAR’s PI profile for 2019 and 2020 by … Talk to the SARB Forums; Monetary Policy Implementation. Consumer prices increased 0.26% in October over the previous month, picking up from September's 0.17% increase. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see inflation averaging 4.0% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 4.4% in 2022. The South African rand (ZAR) posted strong gains against the U.S. dollar over the past month, largely reflecting improved market sentiment following Joe Biden’s win in the U.S. Manufacturing output slid 2.6% in year-on-year terms in September, which was above August's 11.1% decrease and marked the best result since February. Inflation expectations read more Online Store The bank also forecast that Africa's … whilst 2020 moved less on headline from 5.4% to 5.3% (again as expected) – … At its meeting on 19 November, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decided to leave the repurchase rate unaltered at its historic low of 3.50%. Integrate your data with the world’s data in a personalized and collaborative environment, purpose-built to support your organizational objectives. Twitter 3.91 %. The SARB has adjusted its growth expectations moderately and now expects the economy to contract by -8.0% in 2020, versus the -8.2% estimated at the previous MPC meeting. Targets and Results; Monetary Policy Committee. january 2019 - december 2018. january 2019 - january 2018. ... that drive the SARB’s two-year forecast of the economy. inflation (yearly basis) inflation. November 19, 2020. Twitter The SARB evaluates the risks to the growth Changes to SARB CPI forecast* March 2016 July 2016 November 2016 March 2017 * Dotted lines indicate forecasts Sources: SARB and Stats SA May 2016 September 2016 January 2017 Actual 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 Percentage change over four quarters 2000 … Home > Countries > South Africa > Inflation. Quick data summaries and visualizations on trending industry, political, and socioeconomic topics from Knoema’s database. Monetary Policy Statements; Inflation Targeting Framework. October's result marked the highest inflation rate since March. Leverage our AI Workflow Tools and online data environment to manipulate, visualize, present, and export data. However, the panel is fairly well split on what the bank should do. You may continue using your current browser, however, you may experience unexpected problems. Economic contraction in 2020: No forecast shared “We expect the SARB to cut interest rates by 50bp at the May MPC meeting and then put rates on hold at 3.75% through to the end of the year. Read more. GDP is then forecast to lift more gradually in 2021, by 3.5% (3.9% September forecast) and 2.4% (2.6% September forecast) in 2022. Our tools allow individuals and organizations to discover, visualize, model, and present their data and the world’s data to facilitate better decisions and better outcomes. “The 2019 CPI forecast dropped as expected on lower petrol prices – from 5.5% to 4.8%. Headline consumer price inflation (CPI) is seen peaking at 5.3% in the first quarter of 2020. The SARB also whittled down its economic growth forecasts. Inflation came in at 3.3% in October, up from September’s 3.0%. Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism; Market Operations; Regulation and supervision The inflation rate is based upon the consumer price index (CPI). The government and other stakeholders were also provided with improved economic ... SOUTH AFRICAN RESERVE BANK ANNUAL REPORT 2017/18 29 INTRODUCTION Group Weight Index (Dec 2016=100) Percentage change Jan 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2019 vs. Dec 2018 Jan 2019 vs. Jan 2018 All items (CPI Headline) 100,00 105,0 109,4 109,2 -0,2 4,0 Consumer Price Index – January 2019 DETAILED RESULTS Table A - Consumer Price Index: Main indices Unless otherwise stated the table refers to all urban areas. This page has economic forecasts for South Africa including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the South Africa economy. Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis. Revelio Labs | Does a Military Background Boost Your Corporate Potential? | South Africa Inflation | Privacy Policy | Cookies Policy | Terms & Conditions | Sitemap | RSS feed, South Africa: PMI edges down in November amid weaker demand dynamics, South Africa: Inflation hits seven-month high in October, South Africa: Rand hits eight-month high in November on Biden win and positive Covid-19 vaccine trials, South Africa: Decline in manufacturing activity softens in September, Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %). According to OECD, consumer price inflation in South Africa reached the peak of 8.8% in 2008. ... Investec CPI forecast Lower limit of inflation target LinkedIn Google+, © Copyright: 2020. Consumer prices increased 0.26% in October over the previous month, picking up from September's 0.17% increase. South Africa’s annual inflation rate was 3,0% in September, lower than the rates recorded in July (3,2%) and August (3,1%). At their January 2019 meeting SARB's forecasted levels of inflation for 2019 is sitting at 4.7%. The oil price should amount to 42 dollar per barrel in 2020 and 48 dollar per barrel in 2021. - SARB trims Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecast to 5.9% from 6.2%. A peak of 5.5% is expected around the beginning of 2019. By Arabile Gumede and Thembisile Augustine Dzonzi Oct 4, 2016 The SARB’s monetary policy committee (MPC) announced a further 25bp cut this afternoon, taking the repo rate to 3.50%. We recommend using a most recent version of one of these supported browsers when visiting knoema.com. • The latest SARB CPI forecast did not include the NERSA’s RCA clawback in its electricity inflation forecast. Lastly, core inflation ticked up to 3.4% from the previous month's 3.3%. You can change your personal cookie settings through your internet browser settings. Talking Points: - South African Reserve Bank (SARB) holds interest rates at 7% marking a year since the last hike. 5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators. However, it projected that CPI would return to its 3-6% target range by the third quarter (Q3) 2017 sooner than its earlier forecast of Q4. Two overviews are being presented: the annual inflation by year for South Africa - comparing the december CPI to the december CPI of the year before and Press consumer price index (CPI) which is the measure of inflation. Knoema is the most comprehensive source of global decision-making data in the world. After reaching a peak in 2016 consumer price inflation in South Africa begun to decline. The trend of the inflation rate since 2010 could be called upward if there was no decline in 2012 and 2014. These forecasts take into account futures of 27 November 2020. The next move could well prove to be a hike in H1.21. Expectations declined to 3.6% for 2020 (3.9% previously), 4.2% for 2021 (4.5%) and 4.6% for 2022 (4.8%). Inflation forecast, measured in terms of the consumer price index (CPI) or harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) is defined as the projected change in the prices of a basket of goods and services that are typically purchased by households. Looking at the details of the release, price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages picked up pace, while prices for housing and utilities were broadly stable in October. Click on the button below to get started. That is a significant decline in the forecasted rate of inflation for 2019. For 2019, it now sees growth of 0.4% from 0.5%, and 1.2% in 2020 compared to the 1.4% it foresaw in November 2019. Members; Meetings; Dates; Monetary Policy Communication. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. The South Africa Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) looks set to hold the rate on 24 November 2020, according to the majority of 12 economists on Finder’s panel (86%). Historic inflation South Africa (CPI) - This page features an overview of the historic South African inflation: CPI South Africa. Google+, Facebook Table - 2019 inflation South Africa (CPI) inflation (monthly basis) inflation. About - … The data comes after SARB's final meeting of 2020 the past week, where the main interest rate was held at 3.5%. According to the SARB, headline inflation should remain in the target range of 3 - 6% over the forecast period (2018-2020), averaging 4.9% in 2018, a slightly higher 5.2% in 2019, and 5.1% in 2020. JOHANNESBURG - Consumer price inflation (CPI) rose above the midpoint of the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) target band for the first time in 15 months, due … SARB Events Gallery; Monetary policy. IMF agree with OECD and UN that following year will show the increase of inflation. At their November 2018 meeting their inflation forecast for 2019 average 5.5%, which is pretty close to the upper end of their inflation target of between 3% and 6%. "With the South African economy undergoing a marked recovery in Q3.20, it is unlikely SARB will choose to cut again. My Cart During the third quarter, average inflation expectations for all forecast years declined further relative to the second quarter. Johannesburg - The South African Reserve Bank's (SARB's) forecast on the CPIX consumer inflation rate has been lowered significantly in the May Monetary Policy Review (MPR) compared with the November 2004 MPR and the central forecast now peaks at 5.2% y/y in the first quarter 2006 compared with a peak of 5.8% y/y in the third quarter 2005 given in the previous MPR. LinkedIn The browser you are currently using is not supported by knoema.com. The forecast of GDP growth for 2019 is revised lower at 0.5% (from 0.6%). The inflation forecasts from December 2020 until the end of 2021 produced by the Federal Planning Bureau are based on observations until November 2020 from Statbel. 2020.12.07 06:00, ZAR, Net International Reserves, Actual: $51.257 B, Forecast: $52.719 B, Previous: $51.364 B Economists forecast Wednesday’s CPI figures will show that headline inflation strengthened from 3.6% to 4% in December, whilst underlying inflation held at 3.9%. Weather Source | Criminals More Active in Nicer Weather. Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. World and regional statistics, national data, maps and rankings, Discover new signals and insights from leading alternative and fundamental data providers, Latest releases of new datasets and data updates from different sources around the world. SARB Cuts 2020 GDP Growth Forecast To -7.3% From -7% Seen In May The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com Investec’s Annabel Bishop expects inflation to rise next year, as does Efficient Group Economist, Dawie Roodt, who warns that "CPI will become a problem toward the end of 2021". Client Log In, Facebook -0.09 %. Our website uses cookies to improve your online experience. The SARB stuck to its forecast that consumer price inflation (CPI) would peak at 7.3% in the final quarter of 2016 before easing to an average 5.4% in 2018. At its meeting on 19 November, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) decided to leave the repurchase rate unaltered at its historic low of 3.50%. Curated by Knoema’s data analysts to deliver leading short-term and long-term indicators and forecasts from trusted sources for each of the covered industries. Our Insights blog presents deep data-driven analysis and visual content on important global issues from the expert data team at Knoema. This will now be included in its forecasts to be presented next week. The decision was split and follows a 50bp cut in May. South Africa: SARB on hold in November. 57% of economists think a hold is the right decision and 43% say the bank should cut rates. 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